Rajat Budhiraja

Chinese Real Estate -- Is it a Bubble

2010-08-09T17:18:00.001+05:30

The Chinese government has created the mother of all bubbles and when it pops, it will be felt around the world. The China miracle is not really a miracle. It is a debt financed bubble. Sound familiar ? The chart below shows that compared to the real estate bubble in Japan during the late 1980s and the current bubble in China, the US housing bubble looks like a tiny speed bump. The US has 20% to

Is the market set up for a big sell-off

2010-08-05T16:11:00.001+05:30

Is the market ignoring the macro pressures on inflation and the micro pressures on profit growth, especially given the premium valuations for equities? Hence, is the market set up for a big sell-off? Market View: The market has reacted nonchalantly to a tepid earnings season, especially with the larger companies tending to disappoint on earnings. While inflation is a concern, the market seems to

Dollar -- the mother of all carry trades

2009-11-06T10:44:00.001+05:30

Hey, Have a look at these interesting articles on USD/Gold and also my technical view on the same. =============================== Key Takeaways from Nouriel Roubini’s article on USD – the mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust.. The US and global economy have begun a modest recovery, asset prices have gone through the roof since March in a major and synchronised rally. While asset

Technical View - Nifty

2009-11-05T09:58:00.006+05:30

Elliot wave Analysis: 5th wave is still pending. · According to Elliot wave analysis, the market is trading in a 4th wave(corrective) of an uptrend (starting from march, 2009) and 5th wave of a bigger wave is still pending. The assumption is supported by Elliot rule; If Wave 2 was a simple corrective sequence (A-B-C) then Wave 4 is likely to be straight/ double bottom/ triangle pattern, which

CV/Cars Leading Indicator for Equity Market

2009-02-25T23:13:00.005+05:30

I have been asking myself “when will market find its final low /when to invest”. This is a difficult task but definitely not impossible. Is it possible to make set of leading indicators which can provide signals of important reversals in the market. I am trying to learn different ways to solve this simple but difficult question.The simple way followed by many fund managers is to track economic

Yield Spread- Leading Indicator for Equities

2009-02-19T23:22:00.003+05:30

The yield spread (10 Year Government yield – 3 Months Yield) topped and bottomed out 1-2 years before real economy growth in every economic cycle since 1970. The Yield spread between long term and short term government bonds serves as a good predictor of future economic growth and has a predictive power of 1-2 years in advance.Yield / Economy Relationship: The argument behind the relationship is

How to Trade the Wedge Pattern

2009-02-19T23:04:00.002+05:30

Rising and Falling Wedges are one of the most interesting patterns in technical analysis. What distinguishes them from triangle consolidation patterns is that price forms an upward or downward sloping coil that leads to the price move.A rising wedge needs at least four ‘touches’ or tests of a trendline to confirm the pattern. Remember, a trendline needs at least two points to confirm it as

Technical Calls - Indowind Energy - Idea

2009-02-11T22:56:00.003+05:30

1) Indowind Energy: CMP- 21.35. The security has been trying to break its resistance level at 21.75. It seems that bulls will take control of the security above its resistance level.Strategy: Buy above 21.75 for a target of 10-15% with a strict stop loss at 20.50.2) IDEA-CMP- 47.6. The security has been consolidating for quite some time in a very narrow range 44.47. It has moved above its

Stocks Making New Highs- New lows/ Broad Market Indicator

2009-02-11T01:01:00.005+05:30

Broad Market Indicator (Stocks Making New High- Low)This is third indicator in series of broad indicators. The purpose of the indicator is to analyze the strength of the market by finding out the number of securities in which bulls are dominant through number of stocks making new high and new low.The basic and very well known trading system is to buy a security, if it breaks above previous high

Nifty weekly Outlook

2009-02-10T01:01:00.002+05:30

Nifty CMP- 2919.· The market is forming a bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern for which left shoulder was formed on January 15, head on January 23 and right shoulder on February 3. The market is trading near to its neckline resistance at 2875, breakout of which would trigger an upside up to 3150.· The market has been consolidating in a broad range between 2600-3150, breakout of which would

Stocks Above- Below Moving Average/Broad Market Indicator

2009-02-08T21:01:00.007+05:30

Number of Stocks moving Above – Below moving averageThis is the second indicator in my list of broad indicators. The moving average is the most important and basic tool for technical analysis, which can be used to analyze the overall market also. The stock is bullish, if it is above its moving average and bearish if below moving average. The strength of the market is directly related to

Broad Market Indicators/ Arms Index

2009-02-04T18:39:00.005+05:30

Broad Market Indicators:Most of the novice technical analysts just look at the charts of Nifty/Sensex, which provides only one dimensional view. The technical analysis of the market not always provides a clear picture of the market direction. It is always better to look out the signals from overall market rather than just market. Broad market indicators provide an idea about the strength of the

Nifty Outlook

2009-01-12T00:00:00.004+05:30

Nifty(CMP- 2873)-